Getting counterfactuals right: the perspective of the causal reasoner

This paper aims to bridge philosophical and psychological research on causation, counterfactual thought, the problem of backtracking. Counterfactual approaches causation such as that by Lewis have ruled out backtracking, while prominent models causal inference interventionist counterfactuals do not backtrack. However, various formal models, certain backtracking end up being true, evidence shows people sometimes backtrack when answering questions in contexts. On basis research, I argue ordinarily both kinds may be employed, non-backtracking are more easily used because they consistent with temporal order information embedded mental simulation heuristic, match reasoners’ experience causation. While this approach is incompatible ambitions theories seek establish interpretation only legitimate one, it can provide support for perspectival views open further inquiry functions thought context models.